Effective population size in infectious disease models

Thesis type
(Thesis) M.Sc.
Date created
The effective population size Ne was introduced by geneticist Sewall Wright to describe idealized populations. Ne has been a research interest because of its mathematical theory and population management utility. Inspired by such potential, we (re)-introduce the notion of the effective population size N∗ in mathematical epidemiology. Our aim is to see if a simple model with the population size as a variable N∗ can capture disease dynamics in various data types. We introduce a simple SIR model and derive methods of estimating N∗. We apply our methods to both simulated and real outbreak data. We compare N∗ to N and look at how corresponding solution curves match data. We identify preferable methods and settings where these methods are applicable. We state possible implementations of N∗ in public health management as well as extensions and limitations of our methodology.
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This thesis may be printed or downloaded for non-commercial research and scholarly purposes.
Supervisor or Senior Supervisor
Thesis advisor: Colijn, Caroline
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