Exploring the Rise and Decline of Anti- State Terrorism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): A multi-sphere based explanation

The Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has become a main hub for global, as well as domestic, terrorist activity. Many of the groups committing terrorist attacks originate from, andare situated in, this region. Thus, it is essential to understand the particular social, economic, political, structural and historic factors predominant in the region that create such fertile groundfor the establishment and survival of terrorist movements. In this longitudinal study, a comprehensive anti- state terrorism model was utilized to examine the relationship between the rise and decline of terrorist activity and social, economic, political, structural, as well as historic factors. Furthermore, an interrupted time series design was applied to explore the region’ssusceptibility to global, as well as regional, change. The results of this study provide an in-depth understanding of the specific factors contributing to the rise and decline of anti-state terrorism inthe MENA region, as well as suggest policy recommendations on effective ways to respond to the terrorist threat.