INDUSTRY ANALYSIS OF AUTONOMOUS MINE HAUL TRUCK COMMERCIALIZATION

This analysis researches the commercialization of autonomous vehicle technology, specifically in surface mining operations. Autonomous technology refers to self-driving vehicles in particular mine haul trucks. It is an important topic because the global demand for minerals is increasing and mining is becoming more challenging. Mining companies seek to reduce costs and make operations safer, especially in developed countries with high labour costs. Background on autonomous technology comes from research on the state of personal autonomous vehicles. A comparison between the requirements and conditions of automating personal automobiles versus mine haul trucks explains why autonomous haul trucks are available sooner. The analysis explains how haul truck manufacturers are entering the market by vertically integrating supporting technology and trialling the equipment at various mines. An economic analysis of the savings due to autonomous haul trucks helps explain where they are showing up in the market place and the magnitude of benefits to being a market leader. To understand how players compete in this market, this analysis describes the advantages of being an early entrant versus a late follower. It considers customer lock-in and network effects. There is speculation on the strategies that late followers could take to compete with early entrants and whether there would be a standards war. Finally, the analysis predicts how brand leaders will maintain market share and take actions to be prepared for when it shrinks.