Distributions of Time to First Spot Fire

Author: 
Date created: 
2017-08-15
Identifier: 
etd10303
Keywords: 
Firebrand
Mixture distribution
Poisson process
Simulation
Wildfire modelling
Abstract: 

In wildfire management, a spot fire is the result of an airborne ember igniting a separate fire away from the main wildfire. Under certain environmental and wildfire conditions, a burning ember can breach a fuel break, such as a river or road, and result in the production of a spot fire. This project derives distributions of the time to the first spot fire in various situations, and verifies them by simulation. To demonstrate the implementation of the distributions in practice, we incorporate a stochastic fire spread model. This research assesses the likelihood of spot fire occurring passed a fuel break, all while taking into account both spotting distance and spotting rate. This contrasts with the traditional approach that solely involves the maximal spotting distance, and can be a tool for fire management.

Document type: 
Graduating extended essay / Research project
Rights: 
This thesis may be printed or downloaded for non-commercial research and scholarly purposes. Copyright remains with the author.
File(s): 
Supervisor(s): 
Joan Hu
Department: 
Science: Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science
Thesis type: 
(Project) M.Sc.
Statistics: