Assessing greenhouse gas reductions in the transition economies using a hybrid energy-economy model

In this research, the CIMS hybrid energy-economy modelling framework is used to explore the potential for greenhouse gas reductions in the Former Soviet Union and non-OECD Eastern Europe. This model is technologically detailed, behaviourally realistic and incorporates macroeconomic feedbacks, providing novel results that increase the understanding of the effects of global greenhouse gas mitigation policy. The reference case scenario forecasts emissions rising from 2.6 GtCO2e in 2005 to 4.2 GtCO2e by 2050, while energy consumption increases by 75%. The model forecasts that a GHG price starting in 2011 and rising linearly to 300 $/tCO2e by 2050 will achieve a 50% reduction in emissions by 2050 relative to the year 2000. Carbon capture and storage and fuel switching to electricity are a significant mitigation actions. Sensitivity analysis reveals that this result is robust to moderate changes in the assumed rate of industrial growth and cost of carbon capture and storage.