On the implications of climate change for agriculture-led development strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa

Climate change is presenting challenges for agriculture-led development. Historically, increased agricultural productivity has been essential to poverty reduction and development, particularly for agriculture-based countries. In several countries of Sub-Saharan Africa, present and future climate change will negatively affect agricultural productivity. Adaptation strategies can dampen these effects, but many are prohibitively expensive without sustained economic growth or international assistance. In countries that are projected to experience positive or minimally negative effects from climate change, such as Burundi, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Niger, and Uganda, agriculture-led development strategies remain advisable. Those countries that are projected to experience significantly negative consequences, such as Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda, Sudan, Togo, and Zambia, may wish to consider alternative strategies. In these cases, explicit efforts to distribute the benefits of other strategies to the poor (especially the rural poor) will be required to achieve widespread poverty reduction.