A comparative analysis of two fleet dynamic models

In fisheries management it is important to consider how fleet dynamics and individual harvester behaviour may change in response to changes in management regulations. To date, a comparative analysis examining the efficacy of different methods of predicting the distribution of effort is lacking. I compare two methods of modelling harvesters’ choice of fishing location. The first method uses an ideal free distribution (IFD) based on profitability and the second method is an agent based (AB) approach using a random utility model (RUM). The RUM links harvesting decisions with economic data and a harvester’s prior experience. Using behaviourally based simulation modelling, I compare the spatial distributions of effort produced by each model. My results illustrate that the method chosen to model location choice drastically influences the prediction. These findings will equip fisheries scientists with tools to develop control systems that incorporate fishermen behaviour in order to evaluate regulatory effectiveness.