(Research Project) M.R.M.
The Cultus lake sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) population has declined dramatically over the past few decades, and was classified as endangered by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) in 2003. There are currently three major initiatives underway for assisting the recovery of this population (harvest management, predator control, and hatchery operations). I use a stochastic simulation model within a decision analysis framework to evaluate management strategies associated with these three initiatives. I estimate the probability of meeting pre-specified survival and recovery objectives for four alternative management strategies. My results suggest that the probability of recovery for Cultus Lake sockeye salmon is low under current marine survival rates. I also describe trade-offs between probability of achieving the conservation objectives and reductions in the commercial sockeye salmon fishery to help evaluate the relative merits of these initiatives.
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