Risk of violent and sexual recidivism: A comparison of dangerous offenders and repetitive sexual offenders

Eighty-two Court-designated Dangerous Offenders (DOs) were compared to a matched group of 82 repeat sexual offenders (Matched Sexual Offenders: MSOs) on various demographic, developmental, and offence-related factors as well as their risk for violent and sexual recidivism. There were few pre-index offence demographic and developmental differences between the two groups or differences in psychopathology in adulthood. The DOs and MSOs had similar numbers of sexual assault victims but the DOs who assaulted adult victims committed more severe offences. They were more likely to abduct or kidnap strangers and caused more moderate to severe injuries. These significant differences only pertained to a minority of the DOs. There were no significant differences in the offence features of the DOs and MSOs who sexually assaulted children. Scores for the DOs were significantly higher on the PCL-R, VRAG, SORAG, Static-99, and SVR-20 indicating that the DOs, as a group, have a greater probability of violent and sexual recidivism than the MSOs. Varying with the measures and follow-up periods, the difference between the DOs and MSOs in their actual risk probabilities were 4-1 7% for any violent recidivism and 13-16% for sexual recidivism. Among the subtypes of sexual offenders, the largest differences in the total scores of the various measures was between the mixed sexual offenders in the DO and MSO groups. Results are discussed in terms of legislative implications and the evaluation of risk in sexual offenders.