Towards net zero heating: An analysis of technology and policy pathways for decarbonizing building heat in British Columbia

The Province of B.C. has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions from residential and commercial buildings, but little information is available on 1) the technology-energy pathways to cost effectively reach emission targets and 2) the impacts of heat decarbonization on gas distributers. This study uses the partial equilibrium energy economy model CIMS to assess the impacts of announced policies to decarbonize building heat under two possible visions of the evolution of the gas system: a maintained gas grid, and a pruned gas grid. In both scenarios, heat decarbonization results in high gas costs that cause gas grid defection and favour a shift to electric heating in both residential and commercial buildings. Additional insight is provided into future technology heating stock, forecasted gas costs, electricity sector impacts, and other considerations for policy makers.