Assessing uncertainties of our climate-friendly road freight options

To reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate climate change, all sectors of an economy must be addressed. Some sectors seem to have a clear path on the road to zero-GHG emissions, but other sectors, like road freight, remain unclear. Few have attempted to reduce emissions in road freight due to relatively high costs and considerable uncertainty about likely technology and energy pathways. This study will apply scenario analysis to forecast potential zero-emission pathways in the road freight sector by assessing how key uncertainties may affect the likely contributions of zero-emission hydrogen, electric, and flex-fuel biodiesel trucks to the road freight sector. CIMS, a partial equilibrium energy-economy-emissions model, is used to provide insight into possible market shares, greenhouse gas emissions, and life-cycle cost of zero-emission truck options for a variety of different zero-emission pathways based on uncertain parameters.