Methods for evaluating the potential effects of marine protected areas on adjacent fisheries

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are proposed for a range of fisheries and ecosystem management objectives, including stock recovery and protection of' critical benthic habitat. However, MPAs are often opposed by fishers, who expect reductions in the catch in nearby grounds. Therefore, information is needed to establish the likely short-term effects of MPAs on adjacent fisheries. I used spatial models of a fish population targeted by a fishing fleet, to develop methods for predicting the fishery effects of MPAs. My findings suggest that the decline in catch rates is not equivalent to the proportion of the catch nominally protected by the MPA. Further, although fish movement is important, low precision estimates may be adequate to predict MPA effects. Detailed catch and effort data can be used to predict the effects of MPAs on catch rates. These methods will help stakeholders evaluate the costs and benefits to the fishery of establishing MPAs.