Simple Decision Guidelines for Terminal Fisheries Targeting Atnarko River, British Columbia, Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)

Simple decision guidelines (SDG) describe the basic components of more complex decision-support tools. These components are: (1) management objectives, (2) management options, and (3) guidelines for assessing stock status and responding accordingly. In close cooperation with the local fisheries manager, I developed SDG for terminal fisheries targeting Atnarko River chinook salmon. To describe management objectives, I developed a hierarchical summary, elicited verbal assessments of attributes reflecting these objectives, and used three simple methods for eliciting relative preferences. All three produced consistent rankings, but a newly-developed graphical weighting method best facilitated the interaction with the manager and also captured his attitude towards risk. To identify reference points for in-season management, I built a Bayesian projection model, and fit classification trees to the manager's interpretations of the model's output. Using these reference points, I summarized in-season decision-making in two simple tables. Management actions since 2002 have been consistent with these guidelines.