Modelling the effect of Canada's clean fuel standard on greenhouse gas emissions

Canada is projected to miss its 2030 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions target. Consequently, there remain federal policies that have been announced but not yet implemented that aim to close the 2030 “emissions gap”. This study assesses the likely effects of one such policy, the Clean Fuel Standard (CFS), on GHG emissions using the gTech energy-economy model, with a focus on the importance of policy interactions as they relate to the CFS’s GHG abatement potential. The study finds that Canada’s CFS as proposed would cause about 7Mt of GHG emissions reductions by 2030 when added to other planned and implemented climate policies. An exploratory method for quantifying GHG emissions reductions “overlap” between climate policies is developed. The results emphasize the importance to analysts and policy makers of accounting for both the incremental and combinatory effects of different types of interacting climate polices.