Investigating the evolution of the east asian natural gas market: 2016 – 2040

This research project explores how the East Asian natural gas market and its pricing may evolve and how this evolution could impact British Columbia LNG export prospects. The framework for the project is built around an analysis of the likely natural gas demand growth in four countries: Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and China. The approach involves an analysis of (1) the historical perspective of natural gas markets and international trade, (2) likely natural gas demand growth, supply options and their production costs, and (3) likely supply and demand balances and the prospects for BC LNG export. The research indicates that demand for natural gas in East Asia will continue to grow, with China contributing the most to the region’s demand. Given the production and delivery costs of BC’s LNG competitors, there is a significant likelihood that the market potential for BC’s LNG may be less than predicted back in 2012.