Crime seasonality: exploring the annual temporal and spatial patterns of property crime in Vancouver, BC and Ottawa, ON

It is in the best interest of policy makers to understand not only which crime prevention methods are most effective, but also when and where they are appropriate to apply. This study investigates whether seasonal variation exists temporally across different property crime types and whether these same offences possess micro-spatial patterns that vary substantially over the calendar year. A series of OLS regressions and spatial point pattern tests were employed to examine the corresponding temporal and spatial patterns of crime in two Canadian cities with differing climates, namely Vancouver, BC and Ottawa, ON. Overall, results suggest that: (a) property crimes exhibit distinct temporal peaks in humid continental climates (i.e. Ottawa) and not in temperate ones (i.e. Vancouver); (b) regardless of climate, micro-spatial patterns of property crime remain relatively constant throughout the year; and (c) the seasonal variations of crime should be studied at a disaggregate level.