The Political Economy of Agricultural Statistics: Evidence from India, Nigeria and Malawi (SWP 18)

The political economy of agricultural policies – why certain interventions may be preferred by political leaders rather than others – is well recognized. This paper explores a perspective previously neglected: the political economy of the production of agricultural output data. In developing economies the data on agricultural production are weak. Because these data are assembled using competing methods and assumptions, the final series are subject to political pressure. This paper draws on debates on the evidence of a Green Revolution in India, the arguments on effect of withdrawing fertilizer subsidies during Structural Adjustment in Nigeria, and finally the paper presents new data on the effect of crop data subsidies in Malawi. The recent agricultural census (2006/2007) indicates a maize output of 2.1 million tonnes, compared to the previously widely circulated figures of 3.4 million tonnes. The paper suggests that ‘data’ are themselves a product of agricultural policies.