Predicting Serious Violent and Serious Property Offending: School- and Family-Problem Risk Factors Revealed by Incarcerated Youth

Serious violent young offenders have been described as “a rare species.” Most general population studies do not examine serious and violent young offenders. The vast majority of research on school risk factors and offending focus on delinquency as opposed to serious and violent offending by youth. Research has demonstrated that school problems (poor academic performance, truancy, dropout) are related to delinquency. The aim of the current study is to assess whether school and family problems are significant predictors of serious violent and serious property offences for incarcerated youth. This study also examines whether Aboriginal ethnicity is a significant predictor of serious violent and serious property offences. Data for this thesis is from a sample of serious and violent young offenders in custody drawn from two secure custody facilities and two open custody units located in a major urban centre of British Columbia, Canada (n = 404). The sample consists of youth (aged 12–19) who were interviewed as part of the research project entitled the Vancouver Serious and Violent Incarcerated Young Offenders Study. Bivariate tests and logistic regression models are used to analyze the role of school and family problems in predicting serious violent and serious property offences. Results show that school problems, family problems, age, mental health problems, and substance use are significant predictors of serious violent offences. Family problems, mental health problems, gender, and Aboriginal ethnicity are significant predictors of serious property offences. School problems, gender, age, mental health problems, and substance use are significant predictors of serious violent and serious property offences (SVSP offences). School problems, family problems, gender, mental health problems, and substance use are significant predictors of no serious violent and no serious property offences (no-SVSP offences). When adjusting for the effect of demographics, mental health problems, and substance use, school and family problems are important independent predictors of serious violent offences and no-SVSP offences. School problems are also a strong independent predictor of SVSP offences. Family problems emerged as an independent risk factor for serious property offences.