In-river backwards run reconstruction of Fraser River sockeye fisheries from 2002 - 2009 and initial validation of the Fraser River Salmon Management Model (FRSMM)

Management of Fraser River sockeye is becoming increasingly complicated due to environmental and fishery change. To assist managers I develop an in-river backwards run reconstruction to provide Conservation Unit (CU) specific harvest rates and arrival abundance at Steveston from 2002 – 2009. Annual total harvest rates vary from a low of 4.5% (2009) to a high of 34.7% (2004), while CU specific harvest rates vary from a low of 0.1% for Chilliwack (2007) to a high of 45.3% for the Early Summer Shuswap complex (2004). Harvest rates of Cultus Lake sockeye, a population of concern, never exceed 12.9% (2006). I then provide a coarse validation of the Fraser River Salmon Management Model (FRSMM), and find that FRSMM arrival timing at Mission is simulated to within +/- 2.5 days for 90% of CUs at the 50th percentile, while FRSMM harvests can differ by up to +/-30%.