"Catch and release": predicting encounter and victim release location choice in serial rape

Much research on the geographic decision-making of sexual predators has found that offenders do not travel very far from their home base to commit crimes. Although this aspect of geographic profiling has been well documented, of equal importance is the understanding of why offenders choose certain locations to commit their crimes. This information is not only significant to rape investigations, but it is especially important for geographic profiling and its further development as an investigative tool. Using data from a sample of 361 crime events committed by 72 serial sex offenders, Generalized Estimating Equations are used to predict both the encounter and victim release sites. Results indicate that temporal factors, offender hunting behaviour, and modus operandi strategies are key considerations, but their importance varies depending on whether the location is in a residential land use area, private site, inside location, or a site that is familiar to the offender.