Statistical methodology for profitable sports gambling

Date created: 
2012-07-24
Identifier: 
etd7269
Keywords: 
Betting systems
Kelly criterion
Monte Carlo simulation
Online gambling
Probability
Statistical analysis
Abstract: 

This project evaluates the performance of betting systems using as many real-life elements as possible. Starting with a gambling record of more than 600 bets that were actually placed at an online sports gambling website, a Monte Carlo simulation is carried out to compare different bet selection strategies and staking plans. The best performing system is identified and its performance is measured taking into account the actual constraints found in online sports gambling; finally, the results are measured with respect to a 40,000 customer database from the same bookmaker where the bets were placed. The results offer compelling evidence that a finely tuned sports betting system involving a solid selection process and optimized staking has the potential to produce large profits with a limited initial bankroll after a relatively short amount of time

Document type: 
Graduating extended essay / Research project
Rights: 
Copyright remains with the author. The author granted permission for the file to be printed and for the text to be copied and pasted.
File(s): 
Supervisor(s): 
Tim Swartz
Department: 
Science: Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science
Thesis type: 
(Project) M.Sc.
Statistics: