An analysis of the feasibility of peace in Uganda

Post-war societies have a 40 percent chance of conflict onset directly following the war. This paper utilizes a post-war case study, Uganda, to analyse the future feasibility of war recurrence. An empirical model is applied to obtain a quantitative measure of the risk of war onset. The model is followed up with a qualitative study of alternative variables. Limitations of the quantitative and qualitative techniques applied were reduced through the combined analysis. The joint analysis allowed a comprehensive understanding of the root causes and sustainability of the civil war, and highlighted variables in post-war Uganda that would impact the feasibility of war. The feasibility hypothesis of this paper was confirmed: the risk of war onset in present day Uganda is high. War recurrence is not inevitable; however, policy and development programmes must be tailored to increase the feasibility of peace in Uganda.