Ranking and prediction for Cycling Canada

Author: 
Date created: 
2017-12-14
Identifier: 
etd10475
Keywords: 
Cycling
Ranking
Prediction
Bradley-Terry
Pairwise-comparisons
Abstract: 

In efforts to improve Canadian performance in the men's Elite UCI Mountain Bike World Cup, researchers from the Canadian Sport Institute Ontario (CSIO) presented to us a specific problem. They had a wealth of race data but were unsure how to best extract insights from the dataset. We responded to their request by building an interactive user interface with R Shiny to obtain rider rankings. Estimation was carried out via maximum likelihood using the Bradley-Terry model. We improved on the existing literature, proposed an exponentially weighted version of the model, and determined an optimal weighting parameter through cross-validation involving performance of future races. Therefore, the proposed methods provide forecasting capability. The tuned Bradley-Terry estimation performed better than the UCI point-based ranking in terms of predictive error. This implementation of the Bradley-Terry model with a user-friendly graphical interface provides broader scientific audiences easy access to Bradley-Terry ranking for prediction in racing sports.

Document type: 
Graduating extended essay / Research project
Rights: 
This thesis may be printed or downloaded for non-commercial research and scholarly purposes. Copyright remains with the author.
File(s): 
Senior supervisor: 
Tim Swartz
Department: 
Science: Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science
Thesis type: 
(Project) M.Sc.
Statistics: